Reasons To Be Optimistic About the 2026 Housing Market
If a move is on your radar for 2026, there’s a lot more working in your favor than there has been in a while.
After a stretch where many people felt stuck, 2026 is shaping up to be a year with more balance, more options, and more clarity for people who want to make a move. Not because the market is suddenly “easy,” but because several key conditions are shifting.
Here’s what the experts are saying you have to look forward to.
Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com:
“After a challenging period for buyers, sellers and renters, 2026 should offer a welcome, if modest, step toward a healthier housing market.”
The National Association of Realtors (NAR):
“Top economists have one word to sum up the housing market for 2026: opportunity. Lower mortgage rates and a rising supply of homes are expected to open up the housing market . . . something the real estate industry and potential home buyers and sellers have been waiting for, following three years of stagnation.”
Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American:
“. . . for the first time in several years, the underlying forces are finally aligned toward gradual improvement. Mortgage rates may drift down only slowly, but income growth exceeding house price appreciation will provide a boost to house-buying power — even in a higher-rate world. Affordability won’t snap back overnight, but like a ship finally catching a steady tailwind, it’s now sailing in the right direction.”
Mischa Fisher, Chief Economist at Zillow:
“Buyers are benefiting from more inventory and improved affordability, while sellers are seeing price stability and more consistent demand. Each group should have a bit more breathing room in 2026.”
Local Snapshot: Santa Barbara South Coast (November 2025)
While national experts are optimistic, local data shows that Santa Barbara is already seeing a significant shift toward the "opportunity" the experts mentioned. Here is how our local market performed in November 2025:
Home Estates & PUDs : The single-family market showed strong growth in volume and price compared to the previous year.
Sold Listings: 82 properties closed in November, a significant jump from 63 in November 2024.
Median Sold Price: The median price for November was $2,412,500. Year-to-date, the median price has risen 7.7% to $2,370,000.
Inventory & Demand: Active listings YTD reached 1,125, up 14.8% from last year. Demand remains high, with properties entering escrow up 14.9% YTD.
Market Speed: Homes are selling in an average of 45 days.
Condominiums : The condo segment is demonstrating even more dramatic inventory growth, offering more "breathing room" for buyers.
Sold Listings: 24 units sold in November, compared to 19 last year.
Median Sold Price: The November median was $1,200,000. The year-to-date median price of $1,048,500 is up 5.2% over 2024.
Inventory Surge: Total active listings YTD are up 17.7% (366 units), providing much-needed selection for local buyers.
Why Local Insight Matters More Than Ever
Just remember, while the national outlook is improving, conditions will still be different based on where you live. Some markets will move faster than others. Some will see stronger price growth. Others will remain flat. As Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, explains:
“Market performance will hinge on local economic conditions, making 2026 one of the most geographically divided markets we’ve seen in years.”
That’s why understanding what’s happening in your specific area is key. In Santa Barbara, we are seeing a "upward momentum"— volume is up significantly from 2023, though still below the 2021 peaks. The national trends set the stage, but local dynamics determine how they play out for you. And that's why you need a local strategist.
Bottom Line
If you want to talk through what’s expected for our local market and which trends you’ll want to take advantage of, let’s connect. Whether you are curious about the value of your home in today's shifting market or you want to be the first to see the increasing inventory in the Santa Barbara market, I am here to help you navigate 2026 with confidence.
*The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in this article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Brisaly Balderas and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Brisaly Balderas and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.
